Brett's Cowboys Corner

The Ravens did not expect to find themselves at 0-2 to start the season. It was a bad week for the ‘good’ teams around the NFL this week, and the Ravens fell victim to Gardener Minshew’s Raiders, 26-23. The Ravens are getting desperate for their first win of a title-contending season and a wounded run defense of Dallas is ahead.

*John Harbaugh stop reading here* If the Ravens are smart, they are looking at the New Orleans film and watching how they ran the ball and the effortlessness of it, and the Ravens should replicate it to the point where they shouldn’t throw the ball once until Derrick Henry, Justice Hill or Lamar Jackson is stopped in the backfield.

This is still a top-tier defense, but they are not the same Ravens defense that we have been used to in years past. The Ravens have not allowed 100 rushing yards yet, leading the NFL in rush defense. But the Ravens are one of the worst pass defenses in the league, they give up chunk plays and have had redzone issues, which may be the area of attack for Dallas.

OFFENSE

Lamar Jackson: A dual-threat quarterback, 7-year veteran, and two-time league MVP. Jackson will be the greatest threat to the Cowboys this week, with his ability to throw and run the ball. Dallas will need to commit to keeping track of Jackson, likely with a quarterback spy…maybe the role of DeMarvion Overshown, or in years past it’s been Jourdan Lewis. Jackson has had excellent pocket protection this year and will tear into defenses with the intermediate (10-19 yards) ball. He finds the open down the field well, and if something isn’t there, he will never force the throw, he will utilize his legs as a weapon. Jackson leads his team in rushing with 167 yards and 8.0 yards per carry, he will give Dallas a headache, especially with the ability to pick up first downs in short yardage. I can already see the Cowboys finally getting a stop in a 3rd and 4 situation and Jackson will drop back and immediately tuck the ball and pick up the first and then some. You can try to pressure him, Dallas has had success applying pressure but through two games, unless the pressure hits fast, Lamar will sniff out the pressure and roll out of the pocket. Many times when he is out of the pocket, he will also look downfield for open stationary targets or one of his signature dump-off targets in Mark Andrews or Justice Hill.

You Might Need All-11 to Bring Down King Henry.

Derrick Henry has been able to run over many teams and may be looking to replicate some Alvin Kamara numbers. Standing at 6’2″ 247, through his career he has averaged about 4.4 yards per carry, which means if the Ravens hand it to him three times he will get a first down. Dallas showcased the worst rushing defense last week and Baltimore should be salivating, they should run the ball every time until the Cowboys can make a stop. The Raven’s offensive line has a great ability to block for the pass and the run, they get their guards into the second level and swallow up linebackers.

It may take all 11 of your defensive players to get a stop. This brings in an interesting topic, how much should Dallas sell out to stop the run? Given the idea the more you commit to the run the more susceptible you are to the pass. But, I almost have the mindset that I am okay if the Ravens beat you with 300 passing yards and commit to the air attack. You had a week where you got killed in the run and you can afford to lose the same exact way because then you show that you can’t do something. If you focus on stopping the run, the Ravens will resort to play action to fool you, but as long as you get into the backfield fast enough, you could force a bad pass downfield and it may fall into the hands of your ballhawk DB, Trevon Diggs.

Tale of the Tape: Prescott vs Jackson

For the first time, these two quarterbacks will match up on Sunday. Both are top quarterbacks in the NFL but play two very different styles of game. They both share one major thing in common, both have been under ample criticism for their post-season performances. Dak is 2-5 in the playoffs, and Jackson is 2-4, he faced similar first-round exits but last season Jackson made it to the coveted AFC Championship.

Jackson finds open receivers down the field often, his target will have an average of 4.6 yards of separation from the nearest defender, which leads the NFL. Dak is around 3 yards of separation.

Jackson will also avoid ‘high-risk’ throws, there’s no need for him to take risky throws when he can use his elite running ability to pick up yards instead. He will take a few deep shots a game to single coverage, through two games he is 1 of 8. He operates more in the 10-19 yards downfield, 12 of 17 for 225 yards, and two touchdowns in those intermediate throws. Jackson rarely throws into what is considered a tight window, as a matter of fact, he does it the 2nd lowest in the NFL, 9.3% of the time. Dak on the other hand likes to push the ball down the field and take high-risk, high-reward throws, 23.9% of the time Dak’s throws go into a tight window which is the 2nd highest among NFL QBs.

One major issue this type of quarterbacking has on the Ravens, is sometimes they don’t move the ball fast enough in moments of desperation. The Ravens have issues in the 4th quarter, maintaining leads and catching up. If this is a tight low-scoring game, I am not sure if Baltimore wants to be against the Cowboys who have capitalized on those moments.

Be on the Lookout For

This is another offense that implements the motion. Watching their tape I have realized that they motion for a reason, and unlike New Orleans who does it to confuse the defense and create separation. Baltimore likes to motion to give their offense a rhythm, and everything moves for a reason it seems in this offense.

Through two games, they lined up 100 times in the shotgun. 23 plays under center, where they will utilize their full-back, Patrick Ricard often. 12 plays from the pistol, where they passed only once and ran a designed QB-run once. In the two games, we saw 45 pre-snap motions and 76 no pre-snap motions. Zay Flowers is their priority motion man.

Zay Flowers: Their most dynamic receiver, he somehow is always open and Lamar finds him everytime. He averaged 14.3 yards in route depth these first two games.

Isaiah Likely: The team’s leading receiver, though he is a tight end. He possesses the ability to block well and find soft spots in the defense to get open. If resources are tied into Lamar Jackson QB spy…Likely could slip through a few cracks and though Dallas has kept tight ends under wraps this season, they have been known to let a tight end take over the game.

Justice Hill: The security blanket running back, he will be used in run plays but his main ability is to help out in passing situations, Jackson often finds him close by for dump-offs when the play breaks down and they improvise.

DEFENSE

Kyle Hamilton: The Raven’s safety, slot corner, and dime linebacker. Be on the lookout for #14. Hamilton lines up all over the field for Baltimore, and he is the guy you need to look out for lurking. He has played a lot down in the box and is one of the major reasons why the Ravens are the best run-stopping team in the NFL. He is a tough player and is always around the ball, now he is dealing with a back issue and has been limited in practice all week, and on Wednesday he did not practice at all. The tough thing is usually you can see a player and know what their role is on the play to help identify the defensive coverage, for Hamilton you have to figure out what he’s gonna do because they won’t show you it in pre-snap.

The Trenches Are Clogged, Win Through the Air

The Ravens have not allowed 100 yards through two games and have stuffed the run. The Cowboys have not been able to figure out their offensive run schemes. This seems like a perfect opportunity to abandon the run game this week but that is unlikely. The Cowboys have only 3 rushes over 10 yards, which is bottom-5 in the league, and are only averaging 2.5 yards after contact which is bottom-3. The Ravens have only given up 1 rush over 10 yards and have one of the higher ‘run stuffed’ percentages, 16%, which is tackling the runner behind or at the line of scrimmage.

The option for Dallas to unleash the air raid is becoming more clear. They played a conservative style of offense last week and they may need to test the defensive backs a little more this week. Baltimore has been less effective this season at creating free rushers and the Ravens allowed a league-high 14 explosive passes over the first two games this season and the 2nd-highest explosive passing rate, 19.2%. Dallas needs to push the ball down the field and utilize crossing routes to create more separation against Baltimore.

Key Matchups

Marlon Humphry: 22 snaps in the slot, after spending 24 snaps in the slot all last season. Humphry generally looks more comfortable on the outside but he has been moved around this season. As mentioned before the Raven’s secondary has had problems, and some of them come from Hymphry not being the star corner he has been in years past. The Cowboys line up Ceedee Lamb all over the field and he has a big role as a slot corner. We could see this matchup exploited a lot, much like last week where the Raiders lined Adams in the slot a few times to strictly attack Humphry inside. Lamb needs to earn his money today and put on a show against Baltimore.

Brandon Stephens: Being moved from safety and working as an outside corner, he is a great defender but among the defensive backs this may be the weak point. I would like to see the Cowboys get Cooks lined up against him, Stephens has trouble with breaks at the top of the route and Cooks is one of the better route runners on the team, and has a great post break down the field. I think it is a matchup that needs to be attacked and not wasting routes of Tolbert lined up against him.

Kyle Hamilton: The name comes up again. Hamilton will be handling the return of the very much-missed Jake Ferguson. Fergy plays an important role in being Dak’s security blanket, Dak likes to push the ball down the field, and having Ferguson back allows for there to be an option to decide, the risk isn’t worth it, because I can throw a 2-yard pass to my tight end and he will create 8 yards out of it.

The Ravens have some pass rushers who have not created a ton of pass rush but against the run, they have been forces. Linebackers on the edge Kyle Van Noy and Odafe Oweh have been tackling machines and are two big reasons why teams have not been able to run against Baltimore. Nnamandi Madubuike has been a force on the inside generating 3 pressures at DT on 51 pass rush snaps.

Baltimore is a great team that will be contending for a Super Bowl this year, but they have problems and much like Dallas are still trying to figure some things out. This is an opportunity for the Cowboys to grab a solid win that they need just as much as the winless Ravens.