Brett's Cowboys Corner

The Dirty Birds have been on a roll to start the season. They have been hard to slow down, playing a lot of their games very close, and usually end up with the ball in their hands to win the game. The Cowboys may be looking at a shootout this week, the Falcons are scoring 36…the question will be if Dallas can keep up.

Atlanta has beaten some good teams and has kept it close with the likes of Kansas City. They have a familiar opponent of Philadelphia, who will be the next matchup for Dallas. Atlanta trailed against the Eagles and had a chance to win the game, drove the ball right down the field, and did just that. Seamlessly. They did the same with New Orleans, a team that gave Dallas trouble earlier this year. Two great battles against Tampa Bay, featuring a Kirk Cousin’s 500-yard night. There was one team that shut down the Falcons.

The Seahawks beat the Falcons, 34-14. Seattle created tons of pressure against Atlanta forcing Cousins to force some ugly passes leading to turnovers. That pressure came from the middle, the defensive tackles. They covered common route concepts well. Ultimately the Seahawks offense took advantage of an Atlanta defense that has some glaring weaknesses.

OFFENSE

Bijan Robinson: The 2nd year running back out of Texas has garnered a lot of attention. First playing a position that many analysts want to devalue, how could a team use a top-10 pick on a running back? Bijan still has much to prove and looks to be a focal point of the Falcons offense. He has progressed a lot in year two. In a pass-heavy offense, he has found a role in the receiving game. Bijan also makes the most out of his opportunities as he shares a backfield with Tyler Allgeier.

Captain Kirk Is Settled In

Kirk Cousins has found a nice home in Atlanta, and it seems like he was the missing piece of a nicely built roster. If you believe that you have offensive weapons and that you have constructed a sound offensive scheme, then Kirk Cousins is the perfect quarterback to have. He is not the superstar who will take over the game and win it, but he won’t lose you the game either. He elevates his talent around him and moves the ball smoothly.

The Falcons run a lot of 11 personnel, which means they like to have three receivers on the field, with 1 tight end and 1 running back. They like to have options on their route concepts and let Kirko move through his progressions. He has been in the pistol formation on 22% of dropbacks (2nd highest rate in the NFL). The Falcons use motion more in the passing game, and it usually works more in the form of a distraction.

Cousins keeps everything in front of him and is generally close to him. He doesn’t like to wow anyone with crazy plays, he just makes the right play everytime. His big performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Kirk threw for 509 yards, 370 of those yards were passes in the middle of the field. Cousins will attack slants, crossers, and loves the seam route.

He has 7 interceptions, so where does he go wrong? Under pressure. 6 of those 7 interceptions came from under pressure. This is where Kirk Cousins starts to look like the guy people talk negatively about. There were many days in Minnesota where Dallas made it rough for Cousins, sacks, and ints.

He is a sitting duck in the pocket, so if you can get into his face he will make mistakes. As long as you create consistent pressure, Kirk has crumbled. He has had 87 attempts under pressure this year, his passer rating takes a big hit. 111.7 rating normally, but with pressure it drops to a 68.5 passer rating.

The Weapons

Drake London, WR1

The number one target will line up all over. London excels at out routes, hitches, and slants. He has a 70% catch rate. If Daron Bland is back, this may be the better matchup for him. Otherwise, I think Diggs will take him. Drake London is always due for a touchdown.

Darnell Mooney, WR2

His big game against Tampa Bay with 2 TDs and 105 yards. This guy has big play potential. Targeted downfield more often, Diggs might be more beneficial matching up here as Mooney is not much of a route runner, but operates more crossing routes that Diggs is best to keep up with. Mooney will also attack the sidelines and is a big screen target.

Kyle Pitts, TE1

Pitts has finally found himself some rhythm in Atlanta, primarily because of the good QB play. Currently, he is on the best 4-game stretch of his career. He is seeing a lot of targets and has a great catch radius. Dallas needs to figure out a strong and long body to deal with him. Though he’s been under utilized in Zimmer’s system, Israel Mukuamu might be the best matchup here.

Ray-Ray McCloud

This is their return specialist and slot receiver. They love getting him the ball and letting him create some magic with it. Jourdan Lewis has played great in the slot this season, and this will likely be his matchup.

Overall with these receivers, one common way to throw them off. Press man coverage, they have not had a lot of success getting open off press. Some of their curls and slants are pretty basic, but press coverage throws the timing off, and can disrupt Kirk Cousins.

Will They Run The Football?

They absolutely should run the ball. The talent they have will tell you that, also the Cowboys inability to stop the run should tell you that. Believe it or not, the Falcons are 25th in rushing attempts. They have opted to pass, maybe teams expect them to run it more.

Against Dallas, at the very least, they should open running the ball and see if they will be able to dominate the game on the ground. If they don’t have success then they should go to their passing attack.

Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier have been a two-headed monster for Atlanta. Both backs averaging around 5 yards per carry. They love to create contact, averaging 3-4 yards after initial contact. Allgeier is the more ‘run-through you’ back, whereas Bijan is not afraid to create it, but he’d rather dance around you and make you look silly first.

Bijan Robinson (13.28 MPH) and Tyler Allgeier (13.20 MPH) have recorded the 4th-fastest and 5th-fastest averaged speeds on carries, respectively, this season (Per NFL Next Gen Stats).

They like to run it under-center. Bijan Robinson has recorded a 57.6% success rate on under center runs this season, the highest rate among 36 running backs with at least 30 carries. Which makes it a good day to see Dallas for Robinson. The Cowboys defense has given up the most touchdowns (11) and allowed the 2nd-highest success rate (49.3%) against under-center runs this season.

DEFENSE

Raheem Morris: A defensive-minded head coach for Atlanta. Morris started his NFL coaching career in Tampa Bay, back in 2002, where he would eventually become a defensive assistant and win a Super Bowl. After a few stops, he ended up in Atlanta under Coach Dan Quinn, who is a defensive guy himself. Serving multiple roles including assistant head coach, he became the defensive coordinator in 2020, and then the interim head coach as Quinn was fired after an 0-5 start. So he must have kept the head coaching job all the way till now. Actually, Atlanta went with a different coach and Morris went out west, becoming the defensive coordinator for the Rams, and winning his second Super Bowl. After all that, Atlanta decided this year that maybe Raheem Morris is the right guy for the job as head coach.

Schematics

The Falcons play in a zone-heavy scheme. They play close to 80% of their defensive snaps in zone coverage. They focus on having more defenders out to protect the field in passing situations which has made them a lack-luster run defense. They have 6 interceptions on the year and benefit from great safety play from Jessie Bates and Justin Simmons.

Statistically, they are middle of the road in a lot of defensive categories, and should not be anything to fear when playing the Falcons. The defense generally just survives while the offense lights up the scoreboard.

One thing I found interesting, is their use of ‘off-coverage’ where the cornerbacks give about 5 or more yards of separation to the receiver at the snap. This can be useful in attacking Atlanta with quick throws. They do it at a league-high of 78% of snaps. This might be the day for Jalen Tolbert as he leads all Cowboys receivers in receptions (17) and yards (200) against off-coverage this season.

Who To Attack

Dee Alford is the slot corner for Atlanta and he is the most targeted CB in the group. The phrase, “you are only as strong as your weakest link.” Applies no place better than NFL secondaries. Assuming you can create a game plan to properly attack that…ahem.

Alford has struggled with speed this year. He has given up 34 receptions, 292 yards, and 3 TDs. You should see a lot of CeeDee Lamb in the slot, you could even mix in Kavontae Turpin as the speedster. As the Falcons give the cushion, you get those two the ball to make something happen.

A.J. Terrell is the #1 corner, he will move around and follow the outside receivers. It will be interesting to see if he follows Lamb into the slot, they may need to do that given the weakness of Alford. Terrell is a more physical corner, who can keep close and create an interception.

Dak has had trouble dealing with safeties, 2 interceptions in the past 3 games and it has been the safety jumping routes. Jessie Bates and Justin Simmons have created a lot of turnovers for the Falcons. Just stay on course and don’t stop throwing the short route to the slot receiver until they make you.

Problems Up Front

This is the best news for Dallas all year. I do not have to spend a lot of time telling you about the monsters they have rushing the quarterback. They have not been anything scary creating pressure. They are last in the NFL in sacks with 6.

The Falcons have generated a league-low 25.9% pressure rate this season, the 3rd-lowest by a defense in a season since 2018. When it comes to run defense, they are lackluster. They don’t stack the box and they will let teams run the ball on them. Unfortunately, the Cowboys don’t run the ball well. Now incorporating Dalvin Cook into the mess may help if they can figure out attempt shares.

Mathew Judon is the best edge rusher but he has definitely lost a step. This may be the first time Tyler Guyton will be better than the edge rusher across from him. Grady Jarrett is the most dominant rusher, at defensive tackle. But really the whole group this year has underperformed.

I think this game has all the signs of a shootout. Assuming the Dallas offense has gotten things figured out. My prediction is that the Falcons are going to score 36 points. It is up to McCarthy, Dak, and the ‘Boys to have their highest-scoring game of the year and beat that number.