Brett's Cowboys Corner

The final prime-time game for the Cowboys this season. Dallas with just 6 wins on the year will be looking toward the inevitable doom of being officially eliminated from the playoffs, though many fans have already checked that box.

Tampa Bay has a lead in the NFC South race and though they can’t clinch anything this week, they look toward an easier path to win out and clinch the division title, with Dallas, Carolina and Atlanta coming up.

This is a matchup we have seen quite frequently in recent years. Back in 2021 the Bucs hosted and beat the Cowboys on their banner night to open the NFL season. In 2022, the Cowboys got a chance to host the Bucs on SNF, which led to a Dak injury and loss. The most recent matchup was the retirement of Tom Brady, Dallas beating Tampa in the wild card round in that same season.

• A good opportunity for Beebe to add some solid film and get experience against a pro bowl defensive tackle, Vita Vea.
• Tolbert can be effective in the slot for quick passes. Also needs to get some good games to make a case for the Cowboys to not look for his replacement in April.
• Stepping in for a lot of Cowboy injuries. Liufau has been all over the field, the rookie can be used in blitz packages and disrupt Mayfield and the Bucs.

• A consistent weapon in the run and pass game for the Bucs. Irving will make a lot of guys miss, and is by far the best running back the Cowboys have faced in a couple of weeks.
• Lavonte David has generated 29 pressures this season, tied for the most among all linebackers. The Bucs like to blitz and this guy will be sent down the middle to disrupt Cooper Rush.
• Otton is a security valve for the Bucs offense. You will find him in quick catch and run situations as well as the seam. This will be a shared responsibility of both linebackers and safeties this week.

1 – Keep Everything Close Offense.

Cooper Rush has improved since Week 11 as a passer. He is getting more comfortable with route concepts and making the right reads on his throws. Rush has thrown for 506 yards (most) and 8 touchdowns (3rd-most) against man coverage since Week 11.

With 9.9 yards per attempt, Rush likes to get intermediate throws involved. Though against this Bucs secondary, it is probably best to bring those a little closer. Tampa plays zone 84% of the time, where Rush falls to 5.4 yards per attempt and has struggled more.

Tampa Bay leads the NFL in allowed catches, but they are one of the better teams in limiting yards after catch. They do this to limit big plays downfield. It will be on the play caller to implement creative screens and short passes to get the ball quick but also have adequate blocking so they can create yac.

2 – Limit Mike Evans.

Mike Evans has 749 receiving yards in 2024, meaning he needs to average 83.7 receiving yards over his final three games to extend his NFL-record streak of 1,000-yard seasons to start a career to 11.

Of course the Bucs and Baker Mayfield know this. They will look to get Evans the ball to get him to that target. Evans missed some games due to an injury which put him behind the usual mark.

Evans is a physical deep threat, the Cowboys should look to have Israel Mukuamu on the outside as opposed to Amani Oruwariye, so they can match the size and physicality. Evans has 10 targets on go routes this year, only 4 catches but all 4 have been touchdown grabs.

The Bucs have a lot of weapons on offense, and it won’t be possible to stop them all. So the best plan of attack, figure out who the main offensive target will be, probably Evans, and try to shut him down.

3 – Run To The Outside.

The Bucs defensive line has their strength in the interior. With Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey, and Logan Hall. This is a good test of the Cowboys offense. Do they follow the trend of the NFL, as teams run outside 56% of the time against Tampa, or do they stick to where the success of Dowdle has been, running down the middle?

I think if the Cowboys continue to run down the middle, they will realize quickly that this isn’t New York or Carolina anymore. With a rookie center and back up right guard, it is probably just best to run outside.

This is also a good time to incorporate your best outside runners, which are KaVontae Turpin and Ceedee Lamb, who both will take the end-a-rounds and jet sweeps.

4 – Overcome A Good O-Line.

This Bucs offensive line is a good unit, and what makes them good is they have been healthy and built consistent snaps together through the NFL season. This unit gets set in their blocks and will hold up like a wall. They handle 4 man rush perfectly, with gap exchanges and stunts.

The Bucs offense likes to get the ball out quick, and where they struggled the most is when the blitz comes and they have their quick routes stopped up. The Cowboys defensive line has been playing pretty good the last few weeks. A step up from the leader Micah Parsons, which has elevated his teammates around him.

In the Buccaneers most recent matchup with the Cowboys (NFC Wild Card 2022), Micah Parsons generated 10 pressures and 1 sack on 58 pass rushes (17.2% pressure rate). Parsons gets his pressures pretty quickly in the process, which will make it a struggle for Mayfield to get the ball out.