Brett's Cowboys Corner

One of the tougher games for any team. Going to Mile High to play the Broncos. I had this game circled as a loss back when the schedule first released. Playing Denver, specifically for Dallas, always seems to be a place where the offense gets stuck.

At the time, I did not think the Cowboys would roll into Denver with the #1 offense in the NFL. Which makes this matchup even more interesting. Now this is not the ‘No Fly Zone’ anymore, but the Bronco defense is not something to overlook.

Historically, Denver has been a challenge for the Cowboys.

The Cowboys beat the Broncos at Mile High in 1992 and again in 1995 at Texas Stadium. The Cowboys are 0-7 since. Dak Prescott has played Denver twice in his career and was held to 16 and 17 points, Dak currently leads an offense that averages 32 points a game.

Prescott on how much his game has changed since going to Denver in 2017. “Every which way, honestly. I think that was my second season. I didn’t even have personalized training yet.”

Although they allowed an unusual 32 points against New York before sneaking out a win. The Broncos defense has held its own against many offenses, including keeping Philly to 17 and getting a victory.

They are able to get some pressure. The Broncos have generated nearly 50% pressure rate on throws this season. Nik Bonitto’s 24.5% pressure rate is 2.7% higher than that of any other player with 100+ pass rushes this season.

Zach Allen has generated a pressure on 14.3% of his pass rushes since Week 5, the 5th-highest rate of any defensive tackle with 50+ pass rushes in that span (DeForest Buckner, 16.7%).

Dak Prescott has been masterful in getting the ball out quickly. He is one of the lowest pressured QBs this season. But Prescott has also been successful at pushing the ball downfield. He has 984 yards on downfield throws of 10+ air yards this season, the 3rd-most in the NFL.

The matchup to watch for is Pat Surtain II, he has been targeted on just 11.3% of his coverage snaps, the 2nd-lowest of his career and the 6th-lowest among all corners with 200+ coverage snaps.

He is a tricky corner to deal with. Denver will have to make a decision playing against the Cowboy defense. Do they leave Surtain to one side and lock that part down, or do they follow Surtain against George Pickens to keep him out of the game.

If they travel Surtain, that won’t stop Dak from taking chances as Pickens has been very successful with the deep ball and at the very least, drawing that penalty flag.

But will the defense hold up?

That is always the question. Bo Nix is averaging a 2.71-second time to throw this season, the 11th-quickest among qualified quarterbacks. Denver has allowed the 2nd lowest pressure rate in the NFL.

The Cowboys defensive line has struggled to consistently apply pressure, and now they face a QB who has success when left alone. The Cowboys have surrendered the most passing yards (956) and touchdowns (10) on downfield throws (10+ air yards) of any defense this season.

How will they defend them?

“Every week is different. Last week we played more man-to-man because it was the right thing to do. … It’s important as we go forward that we have multiple things in our package that we can do, pressures, man-pressures, zone pressures and all the like. But the guys did a good job executing.”

DC Matt Eberflus implemented a lot more man coverage last week against the Commanders. This week, according to coach…it may change.

Courtland Sutton has caught 11 of his 18 targets against man coverage for 154 yards (9th-most) this season.

The problem to watch out for is J.K. Dobbins. He is a physical runner, and has rushed for 374 yards after contact (8th-most in the NFL). Dobbins has found most of his success on outside runs, where he’s totaled 209 of his yards after contact (5th-most). He is hunting cornerbacks who can’t tackle.