Brett's Cowboys Corner

Last week the Cowboys vs. Chiefs game cleared the threshold for the most watched regular-season game averaging 57 million viewers. The folks at Amazon hope to see this game do a quarter of that. Luckily for Amazon, the stakes of this one couldn’t be higher for these two teams.

For Detroit, they are missing some key pieces to their roster and after losing 3 of their last 5 they sit just outside the NFC playoff picture. Needing a win to get back into the mix.

For Dallas, the road is much tougher but this team might have caught lightning in a bottle at just the right time. The Cowboys have overcome some tough games in the past week, but they are still missing that tough road win.

Is there any extra fire to this game? Coach Schottenheimer, Dak Prescott and many others were a part of the 2024 matchup that ended in being the worst home loss in AT&T Stadium. To say the Cowboys got embarrassed last year would be an understatement. Detroit even had time to line up their offensive lineman at WR…just for fun.

Dallas could have a chance to give Detroit a taste of their own medicine. But coming away with a victory is most important. The Cowboys likely need to win out to stay in the playoff hunt. So in a sense, the playoffs for Dallas have already started.

DALLAS	DETROIT
Shavon Revel Jr: Now playing starter snaps, he has done well in press coverage. Though he avoids Amon-Ra, he will still be tested.	Aidan Hutchinson: A game-wrecker, he will be facing backup tackle Nate Thomas, who is starting in his first road trip.
Javonte Williams: A focus to be shutdown, a solid run attack will avoid the Cowboys from getting one-dimensional.	Brian Branch: All over the secondary and gave the Cowboys big trouble last year. He will try to shutdown both Cowboy WRs.
Kavontae Turpin: Dallas tries to work him into the offense, this game will need some explosive plays and Turpin has been someone they go to.	Jameson Williams: The speedster on this offense, will try to attack the young CBs downfield.

---

The Keys to Victory-

1 – Get to Goff Quick.

An interesting metric, Jared Goff has the 7th quickest ‘time-to-throw’ meaning he gets the ball out quickly (2.73 seconds) from the snap. Usually you can look at pressure rate and see that paired with a high number. QB under pressure- get rid of ball. Simple.

Although Goff is not considered a highly pressured QB, hes about middle of the pack. In Detroit’s offense, it is designed that the ball comes out quickly. The Lions get the ball out with short throws and let their playmakers do the work downfield.

Though they will be missing some keys with no Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. The Lions still have Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs to pick up the slack.

It will be important to get to Goff quickly and make him make difficult decisions. Currently Goff has a 110 passer rating which is 3rd highest this season, but that number drops to 65 when pressured.

The Lions have a banged up offensive line, which is why the ball comes out quick. But if the coverage can stay tight for a second and let Quinnen Williams, Osa Odighizuwa, Donovan Ezeiruaku, Jadeveon Clowney, and others get into the backfield.

2 – Let It Fly.

The Lions run more press man coverage than any other team in the NFL. Lining up in press around 45% of the time. This team is not afraid to play physical and jam up your receivers.

Luckily the Cowboys have two of the best WRs in the NFL this season. The shiftiness of Lamb and the physical body of Pickens. These two guys are the archetype to defeating press coverage.

If you want numbers to support it, George Pickens on 89.4% of his routes where he’s lined up out wide, he faces press on 35.9% of those alignments. He’s been targeted 39 times in those situations, hauling in a league-best 432 yards and two touchdowns. 

To note, the Lions will be out safety Kerby Joseph and corner Terrion Arnold. Two big playmakers in their secondary.

The Cowboys will have a chance at some big time plays downfield, and not to forget the opportunity to use their speedster Kavontae Turpin.

3 – Stay Alert for the Runners.

Two months ago, there wasn’t a team giving up more rushing yards than the Dallas Cowboys. But since adding Quinnen Williams, the Cowboys have given up the 3rd least amount of rushing yards.

While they were able to wear down Saquon Barkley and eliminate Ashton Jeanty, this week they will have the toughest matchup yet. The Lions run a 2-back system that is hard to stop. Sonic and Knuckles is what they call the elusive Jahmyr Gibbs and the powerhouse David Montgomery.

As soon as one gets tired, here comes the other. Watch out for them catching passes out of the backfield as well. Luckily for Dallas, the Lions have struggled as an offensive line and have done poorly against big fronts. The Cowboys roll out one of the biggest fronts in the NFL with 3 DTs.

4 – Don’t Forget About Javonte.

As it will serve to the advantage for the Cowboys to throw the ball. Coupling that with Detroit’s ability to score fast. It is important that the Cowboys don’t get away from the run too quickly. Sometimes you limit your runs because you feel that you fell to far behind in the game, and that’s happened to Dallas a few times this season.

Becoming a one-dimensional passing team only plays into the Lions hands, specifically Brian Branch who will be lurking that secondary. Branch was responsible for an interception last year against Dallas.

Javonte Williams is 45 yards away from his first 1,000 yard rushing season in his career, and if he surpasses that mark, he’ll have done it in just 13 games. He has been a critical part in the success of this Cowboys offense.

The interior offensive line has been battle tested recently with Jalen Carter and Chris Jones. Tyler Smith, Cooper Beebe and rookie Tyler Booker have been physical and have been moving bodies this season. The Lions have the 11th best run defense in the NFL allowing 103 rushing yards a game.

The Cowboys fire continues. I think the defense gets pressure on Goff and that’s where their offensive errors come from, but regardless I think a shootout is in the works. It has been over a month since the Cowboys hung 40 on the board. I think this one ends 44-38 with the Dallas defense making the final stand.