Keys to Victory | Cowboys vs. Bears Week 3

The Cowboys will head up to Soldier Field to take on the winless Chicago Bears. Dallas needs to pick up another win before hosting the Green Bay Packers, a game that is filled with stories and distractions on its own. But for now, focus on Chicago.

The Bears are becoming a desperate team to get their first win. They have looked good through two weeks if games were scored until halftime.

They held a 17-6 lead over the Minnesota Vikings through three quarters before blowing the lead and losing 27-24. Though they were outmatched by the Lions. They kept it close and were only down one score a minute before halftime.

Will the Bears fall to 0-3 in the Ben Johnson era? Or will the law of averages balance out and lead Chicago to victory.

This one has trap game written all over it. There is a lot to fix for Dallas, let’s see if one week was enough.

Game x-factors, not necessarily the best players, but guys that could have a big impact.
DALLASPHILADELPHIA
Javonte Williams: The new bell-cow for the offense, looking to continue the dominant performance with his 4th TD in 3 weeks.Grady Jarrett: The former all-pro will look to disrupt Dallas offense against back up center Brock Hoffman.
Jadeveon Clowney: Will get a few snaps as the new Cowboy edge rusher, an immediate impact would make fans rejoice.Caleb Williams: The young quarterback will look to settle in and attack a depleted secondary.
Matt Eberflus: May not have his top-2 corners but that’s no excuse after getting shredded last week. Need to see something other than cover-2. Ben Johnson: The first year HC desperate for his first win, he is at home and will look to start the new era in Chicago this week.

The Keys to Victory-

1 – Fix the Coverage.

Russel Wilson sliced up the Cowboys zone coverage defense last week. The Cowboys have played zone coverage on 76 of their opponents 78 dropbacks this season, resulting in the highest zone coverage rate in the NFL through two weeks (96.2%).

Caleb Williams has targeted an open receiver downfield on 13.8% of his total attempts this season, the 4th-highest rate in the NFL (3+ yards of separation; 10+ air yards). A key target will be Rome Odunze in the slot.

With Trevon Diggs as a late addition to the injury report. The Cowboys will likely be working with Kaiir Elam and a bunch of guys who haven’t played a ton of football. Look for Zion Childress, a camp standout UDFA from Kentucky to get the call-up and potentially have to be involved with some big plays.

2 – Keep Caleb Williams Contained.

This seems like a story-line every week. But this week, Williams is not afraid to run the ball if his reads are not there. Williams has gained 85 rushing yards on scrambles through two games, trailing only Patrick Mahomes (123) and Josh Allen (87). He has picked up a first down on 6 of his 9 scramble runs, tied for the 2nd-most in the NFL. 

Williams can create with his legs and extend the play. When facing pressure, Williams records around 1.11 seconds to throw which is the fourth longest among QBs. The Cowboys pass rush needs to get home to Williams and not allow him a chance to sit back in the pocket and slice up the zone coverage.

Caleb Williams has completed 4-of-9 deep passes (20+ air yards) for 111 yards and an interception this season and has managed to gain 50 more deep passing yards in each game after accomplishing that feat just five times all last season. Russell Wilson threw 264 deep passing yards in Week 2 against the Cowboys defense, the most such yards allowed by any defense in a game since 2016.

3 – Scheme Up Easy Completions.

The Cowboys offense is getting into rhythm and scoring a lot of points. This needs to continue. I like to see the offense using motion 37% of the time. Especially when Kavontae Turpin is the motion threat, he should be full go despite his neck injury during the Giants game.

Dak targeted a lot of tight windows and double coverage last week. He throws into a tight window the 2nd most in the NFL behind Jake Browning (CIN). 24% of his passes are considered tight window. This has been a consistent trend over the past few seasons as Prescott led the NFL in tight window pass rate during the 2022 (19.8%) and 2024 seasons (21.3%). He has completed 3 tight window passes each to both CeeDee Lamb (51 yards) and George Pickens (30 yards, TD).

I would like to see Dallas find more easier completions and not feel backed up in 3rd and long as much. Utilize the motion to set up easy screens and dig routes.

I think this game will be another shootout. I fear that Chicago is the more desperate team and will not fall 0-3, at home with new head coach Ben Johnson. This will be a challenging game for Dallas, specifically for that defense.

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