Keys to Victory | Cowboys vs. Chiefs Week 13

As we stuff our faces with Turkey and other wonderful Thanksgiving delicacies, and Post Malone serenades us while wearing his custom Cowboys jersey. The Texas QB Patrick Mahomes will look to get the Chiefs back into playoff contention.

But on the other side, there is a team that is on a heater and is hungry to keep rolling. The Cowboys need some help to get back into the playoff picture but a victory on Thursday will set them in great position.

This should be a high scoring affair, both offenses have the potential energy to put up 40 points, and have done it this season.

This will mark the second Thanksgiving matchup between the Chiefs and Cowboys, with the first being a 24-12 Cowboys win in 1995. The coaching matchup that game was Barry Switzer for Dallas and Marty Schottenheimer (father of current Cowboys HC) for the Chiefs.

Game x-factors, not necessarily the best players, but guys that could have a big impact.
DALLASKANSAS CITY
Ceedee Lamb: After having a few drops against the Eagles, he needs to get the offense right and get his confidence back.Travis Kelce: Cowboys will need to find the matchup to stay with him downfield. Also lookout for short yardage catches.
Osa Odighizuwa: Lining up against a back up RG, the interior needs to create madness for MahomesRashee Rice: Eclipsed the 75-yard mark three times in his last four games, including a career-high 141 yards against the Colts.
Reddy Steward: With Carson dealing with some injuries, the young corner will have to make an impact on an important game the best he can.Trent McDuffie: Dealing with the new go-to target for Dallas. McDuffie draws the matchup with the NFLs 2nd leading WR, George Pickens.

The Keys to Victory-

1 – Cover the Flats.

The Chiefs offense has made a killing on throwing short and letting the runners do the rest. Mahomes has targeted pass catchers behind the line of scrimmage on 24.8% of his attempts this season, the 4th-highest rate in the league.

57% of Mahomes total passing yards has been on yards after the catch. Look for guys like Travis Kelce to catch near the line of scrimmage as well as Kareem Hunt to be a check down target.

The Cowboys defense has given up first downs because of the flats and short yardage catches. Often playing too far back because they are worried to give up the deep throw.

Since the return of Overshown, I have seen multiple times where he comes and cleans up the short pass.

2 – Win Against the Blitz.

The Chiefs have blitzed opposing quarterbacks at the 9th-highest rate in the league (32.2%), a mark that is on par with blitz tendencies of Spagnuolo-led Chiefs defenses entering the season (32.4%).

Though their efforts have struggled to convert into sacks. The Chiefs have allowed 8.1 yards per attempt when sending five or more pass rushers,

Historically Dak Prescott has played well against the blitz. He gets the ball out quickly.

It will be crucial for Javonte Williams to help out as a blocker on passing downs, he had a few moments where he laid his body out to make a block. Going against Chris Jones and George Karlaftis.

Karlaftis has generated a team-high 45 pressures this season, ranking tenth in the NFL.

3 – Offense Needs to Be Better.

The defense made a lot of stops against Philly and the offense failed to run the score up. Including gaining possession inside the 10 and failing to score points.

The Cowboys have played in six games where the two teams combined for at least 53 points, tied for the most in 2025 (also CIN) and are 3-3 in such games.

Since 2016, the Dak Prescott-led Cowboys have played in four Thanksgiving games with at least 53 combined points and are 3-1 in those contests.

4 – Get to Mahomes.

When facing pressure from the defensive interior specifically, Mahomes has completed just 37.5% of his passes (3rd-lowest) and has averaged 6.2 yards per attempt (18th-fewest). He has faced interior pressure on 14.0% of his dropbacks, the 10th-lowest rate in the NFL.

The matchup, Cowboys defensive tackles Quinnen Williams and Osa Odighizuwa have generated 22 pressures and 8 quick pressures in their two games together. Both of which lead all defensive tackle duos in that span. They have converted sacks at a 15.9% rate in those two games.

Mahomes has been scrambling the most in his entire career, it will be critical to contain him and watch out for him as a runner.

These are two high powered offenses. I think it has all the making for a Thanksgiving classic. A must win for the Cowboys are their journey to the playoffs stays alive for at least one more week.

Response

  1. Lily Avatar

    This year, I’m thankful for these beautifully informative articles

    Liked by 1 person

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