The Cowboys are back on track, at least offensively. This 1-1 team still has a lot to clean up defensivley. Needing to dedicate more resources to stopping the run, the original plan focused on the defensive line and light boxes, but that hasn’t worked in two weeks.
Will Christian Paker make the change?
Now it is time to prepare for the toughest challenge yet: the Ravens…in Rio. While talking about travel, field conditions, and international play seems like over-analyzing this game, it will still be an important piece of this game.
But first we’ll start with the opponent.
Will Anyone Tackle Henry?
In 2024, I remember a Cowboys team that was getting gashed in the run early on in their season. Giving up 100 yards to Alvin Kamara, then the very next week allowing Derrick Henry to carry the ball 25 times for 151 yards and two touchdowns.
If the Ravens are smart, they will get back to philosphy. Turn around and hand it to Henry until the Cowboys prove they can make the stop.
Ironically, the Ravens got away from this genius plan last week, as they lost to the New Orleans Saints late in the game…a stat that has been haunting Baltimore- they only gave Henry the ball five times in the second half.
Derrick Henry has been hit behind the line of scrimmage on just 17.5% of his carries this season, the lowest rate among 43 running backs with at least 15 carries and less than half his 43.3% rate last season. Henry has also generated a league-high 123 rushing yards before contact.
Per Next Gen Stats, even when they have gotten to the ball carrier in the backfield, the Cowboys have finished the play behind the line of scrimmage on just 22.2% of those carries, allowing 4.0 yards after contact per carry, the sixth-most.
Derrick Henry has recorded a league-high 144 yards and three touchdowns on 23 carries using outside zone-blocking concepts this season.
While this is an older clip, Henry with the Titans, the concept remains the same. In Baltimore, they are dominating with Henry the same way he’s been doing since grade school.
Toughest Pressure Rate
The Ravens have generated the fourth-quickest average time to pressure (2.47 seconds) this season, producing quick pressure (under 2.5 seconds) on 21.9% of dropbacks, the second-highest in the NFL.
Prescott has operated a quick, short passing attack against the blitz, averaging a 2.35-second time to throw, the fourth-quickest in the league, and a league-low 4.7 air yards per attempt. He has also thrown behind the line of scrimmage on 39.1% of his blitzed attempts, the highest rate in the NFL.
Dak has been able to stay upright for the most part this season. Tyler Guyton has yet to allow a sack.
The real test will be against Trey Hendrickson. This Dallas offense prides itself in being a top-tier passing attack. They won’t have long for routes to develop against Baltimore.
MVP Lamar
Will Dallas let Jackson get back to his prime feel of the game?
While Lamar Jackson has pushed the ball downfield, throwing past the sticks on 44.6% of his dropbacks, the eighth-highest rate in the NFL, he has posted an 89.3% completion percentage on passes short of the sticks, along with a 71.4% success rate, both the second-highest.
The Ravens dominate in quick short-yardage situations. Dallas has allowed quarterbacks to complete 30 of 32 passes short of the sticks this season, a league-high 93.8% completion percentage.
The Cowboys have allowed quarterbacks to scramble for a league-high 106 yards this season, with 72 yards coming last week against the Commanders. Lamar Jackson has totaled 72 scramble rush yards, the third-most in the NFL, surpassing 30 in both Week 1 (38) and Week 2 (34) after doing so in just one game last season.
Baltimore Has Injuries
The two meaningful notes on the Ravens report that may impact Sunday. Ronnie Stanley, the left tackle, aggrivated a toe sprain during the Saints game which caused him to leave during the 3rd quarter.
This would cause the Baltimore offensive line to get younger and more inexperienced if they miss Stanley.
Zay Flowers went down with an injury in Week 1, he missed the Saints game and now the first practice. He is a big part of the Ravens offense, operating as their slot receiver.
10 Hours to Rio
International games are just weird. The travel is different, the routine is different, the stadium is unfamiliar and even the atmosphere in the crowd can feel completely different from a normal Sunday.
That doesn’t automatically favor Dallas or Baltimore, but I do think it adds another level of unpredictability to this game. When you take two teams out of their normal environments and send them to Rio, you’re entering unusual territory where strange things can happen. Maybe it’s a slow start, an unexpected turnover or one team adjusting to the environment quicker than the other. Whatever it is, this feels like a game where you have to be prepared for something you didn’t prepare for.
It has been raining a lot in Rio recently; there were some concerns early in the week with field conditions, but those have faded away. This game Sunday could come down to the best team, the best run game. But it could also just as easily come down to the team who brought the best cleats to track the field.
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