The battle for the Lone Star State.
Two teams that thought highly of themselves going into their respective seasons and have not lived up to those expectations. Not saying things couldn’t work out for either club, but a loss this week could put them both behind the count.
For the Texans, they have not looked like that playoff team from last year, they find themselves winless to start. The playoffs are not out of reach for them yet, but few teams have come back from a 0-3 start and if they lose Sunday, they’ll just have the ’92 Chargers on their side for the only 0-4 team to make it to January.
Dallas is still getting the defense right, the Cowboys are trying to string together a couple of wins. If they lose Sunday, you can look back to 2020 for the last time the Cowboys started 1-3, a 6-10 finish.
A fun stat: The first game in Texans history was played at home against the Cowboys, a game Houston won 19-10. 8,792 days later, the Texans seek their 100th home win in franchise history against the same opponent as their first game.
The Cowboys lead the all-time series in the ‘Battle for Texas’ 4-3. Watch the video below ⬇️ for my quick breakdown, or keep scrolling to read all three.
1. Have to Get to Stroud
If the Cowboys can’t get to Stroud tomorrow, then Dallas may need to send out that 1st-round draft pick and find a new edge rusher. The Texans are not fielding a good group of guys at offensive line. You can’t continue to let the average guys block you up.
C.J. Stroud has been sacked 10 times across 43 total pressures faced this season (23.3%), resulting in the third-highest pressure-to-sack conversion rate in the NFL.
The Texans have let up the sacks, Stroud is a pretty stationary QB. Donovan Ezeirauku leads the Cowboys in pressures with 10. But only has a 0.5 sack to show for it. Caleb Downs, a defensive back, leads Dallas in sacks…with two
Stroud has faced pressure 2.57 seconds after the snap on average, the sixth-quickest mark in the NFL and quicker than each of the four other quarterbacks to rank top five in pressure-to-sack conversion rate. Stroud has lost 7.0 yards per sack taken, while his 70 total sack yards lost are the fourth-most in the NFL.
The Cowboys’ defense blitzed Jaxson Dart on 16 of 36 dropbacks in Week 1 (44.4%) but has since recorded a 22.7% blitz rate over the past two weeks, the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL over that span.
They may need to up the ante with the blitz against Stroud, as they have not had success just rushing four.
2. Break Through the Run D
As the Houston defense fails in the secondary, Dallas will be able to exploit them using their star receiver CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Sure
But being able to continue to build your rushing attack from last week will be the way Dallas can take control of this game.
Houston plays a wide front with Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter on the edge, but they play the run well. Dallas needs to be able to move the ball forward. Don’t get into 2nd-and-long.
This happened against NYG, you got into long situations often. If the Texans get you into a long 3rd down, they are going to sick their pass rush on you, which is one of the top three pressure units in the league.
Azeez Al-Shaair is their middle linebacker and is their best run defender. With some big bodies at defensive tackle, like Sheldon Rankins, they are a hard group to move around.
Teams have had success against the Texans; they’re 0-3, but those teams stay ahead of the chains and throw the ball quick, getting into long situations…its a death sentence.
3. Be More Desperate
Dallas is 1-2 and should be every bit as desperate as Houston. The Cowboys just flew home from an emotional loss in Rio, got a couple days away from the practice field and now have to make sure Houston doesn’t bring more energy Sunday.
Houston is 0-3, and sometimes I think we look at a record like that and automatically assume Dallas should be the better team. I don’t see it that way this week. The Texans made the playoffs last season, and even Brian Schottenheimer said the Cowboys don’t view them as an 0-3 team.
Houston is walking into Sunday knowing another loss puts its season in an almost impossible position. Dallas has to expect to get a team playing like its season depends on every snap.
Then there’s the law of averages, where outcomes will generally balance out to match theoretical probability. Houston won’t go 0-17, and they aren’t supposed to be a bad team. Houston will pick up wins, but its starting to get harder to think about the postseason. Houston actually knows that better than anybody after starting 0-3 last season and recovering to finish 12-5. And if they fall to 0-4 this year, the history
This is where the cliché of “winning on Wednesday” actually means something to me. Have the high-energy practice. Prepare like you’re the winless team. If Houston is playing to save its season, Dallas needs to play like it’s trying to save its own.
X-Factors of the Game
Game x-factors: not necessarily the best players, but guys who could have a big impact.
Assuming the Cowboys haven’t lost a step with their energy coming back from Rio, they need to join these other teams in sacking CJ Stroud and causing havoc to the Houston secondary. We will see early on if this Dallas team is sluggish.
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