The Tampa Bay Buccaneers come into Thursday night at 0-4, but I don’t think their record completely tells the story of this team. Tampa hasn’t been getting blown out. All four losses have come by one score, including a 17-14 loss to Green Bay last week, and they’ve now played 10 consecutive one-score games dating back to last season.
If you want an example of how strange their season has been, look at the Cleveland game. Tampa trailed 23-19 and was in the middle of a potential game-winning drive when lightning forced a 132-minute weather delay at the two-minute warning. More than two hours later, they came back onto the field in heavy rain, got as close as the Cleveland 20 and had a chance at the end zone before eventually falling short.
So yes, Tampa Bay is winless. But I don’t think this is an 0-4 team Dallas should underestimate. They’ve been within one possession every week, and it feels like they’re constantly one or two plays away from us talking about their season very differently.
The Jalon Daniels Report
With the injury to the right thumb of Baker Mayfield. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will turn to rookie undrafted QB Jalon Daniels. I remember watching the Kansas QB in preparation for the 2026 NFL Draft, grading him as a 6th-round talent.
Here’s a quick blurb from my report:
Daniels was selected as the 2023 Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year, the first Kansas player to receive the award. He was also selected as a preseason First Team All-Big 12 quarterback. He needs to work on his consistency and mechanics but he has athletic upside. He is a good runner and can extend plays, he can run around. He needs to improve his processing and arm skills. His accuracy is not good enough to throw on the run as much as he does. He needs to improve his vision downfield and reading the safety.
I went back and watched his game against Green Bay as well.
His first NFL start wasn’t perfect. He completed 19 of 27 passes for 148 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions, including one decision in the first half that he’d probably like back. But the number that immediately caught my attention was his 55 rushing yards. When Green Bay put him under pressure, Daniels wasn’t afraid to leave the pocket. Tampa used him on a designed run, but he also consistently looked comfortable escaping pressure and extending plays with his legs.
And he isn’t just running to run. There were a couple plays against Green Bay where Daniels escaped to his left and still showed that he could put some velocity on the football while moving. His fourth-quarter touchdown was another example: pressure forced him out of the pocket, he rolled left and found Kenny Gainwell for a 10-yard score. There are still accuracy and decision-making issues that you would expect from an undrafted rookie making his second start, and Green Bay intercepted him twice. But the athleticism gives him another way to survive when a play breaks down.
Tampa also allowed three sacks against Green Bay and has surrendered 16 through four games, so Dallas should have opportunities to get after him. The question is whether the Cowboys can actually finish those opportunities.
We’ve already watched this Dallas defense have problems finishing sacks and containing mobile quarterbacks this season, and Daniels gives Tampa another opportunity to test it. At this point, if I’m the Buccaneers, I might keep calling quarterback keepers until Dallas proves it can make the tackle.
Close Games & A Quality Defense
The thing that stands out to me about Tampa Bay is that I don’t think this looks like an 0-4 defense. All four of their losses have been by one score, and going back to last season, the Buccaneers have now played 10 straight one-score games.
Defensively, they’ve kept themselves in these games. Tampa has held three straight opponents under 300 total yards, ranks in the top five in yards allowed per game and yards per play, and has been especially good against the run. Opponents are averaging just 3.2 yards per carry, the second-lowest mark in football. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That’s why I don’t think Dallas can look at the record and expect to just move the football however it wants Thursday night.
This is a defense that has been good enough to win games. Tampa just hasn’t finished them. And Todd Bowles is still going to make Dak Prescott work for it. According to Next Gen Stats, Tampa has sent a defensive back as a blitzer on 20.4% of opposing dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the NFL. That’s nothing new for a Bowles defense, either. Tampa has ranked in the top five in defensive-back blitz rate every season since 2022.
Then you still have to deal with Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey inside. Kancey has already generated 12 pressures with a 12.8% pressure rate, seventh-best among qualifying defensive tackles, while Vea has been double-teamed on nearly half of his pass-rush snaps when lined up over the center or guard.
Those are numbers that tell me Tampa doesn’t necessarily need one dominant edge rusher to make Dak uncomfortable. They can manufacture pressure from different places, create problems inside and force Dallas to figure out where it’s coming from. On a short week, that’s something I’m watching very closely.
Injuries On A Short Week
The Buccaneers are already going to be without one of the most important players on their defense in Antoine Winfield Jr. Winfield suffered a fractured rib against Green Bay and is expected to miss multiple weeks, which takes a pretty significant piece out of Todd Bowles’ defense. Tampa lists Ifeatu Melifonwu as the next man up at safety, but replacing everything Winfield does is a different conversation. He’s a player Bowles can move around, bring into the box and use as part of all of those different pressure looks.
Then there’s Benjamin Morrison, who has missed both Monday and Tuesday with a quad injury. Assuming the DNPs aren’t playing Thursday, Tampa would be without a starting corner on top of Winfield. That’s where my attention immediately goes to this Dallas passing game. Dak Prescott has played really good football, and CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens give Dallas multiple places to attack. Tampa’s defense has been one of the better parts of this 0-4 team, but taking two starters out of the secondary certainly changes what that matchup looks like.
For Dallas, DeMarvion Overshown still isn’t ready to return. He’s missed both practices this week with the hamstring injury that has kept him out since Week 1, and on a short week, I’m assuming we won’t see him again Thursday. The much better news is Tyler Smith. Dallas officially opened his 21-day practice window Monday, and Smith has been a limited participant both days after missing the first four games following thumb surgery. Smith himself said playing Thursday is possible, although Dallas hasn’t officially activated him yet.
Beating The Tiredness
The reality of the Cowboys’ situation is the hurdles of this early schedule. But no one is feeling bad for you in the NFL.
Dallas had an international game, a short week before heading to Houston, then a shorter week for Thursday Night Football.
Brian Schottenheimer had this statement, which didn’t excite fans
Regardless, you have to be ready to play on Thursday; after this you get a nice break before heading to Green Bay.
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