Waiting all day for Sunday Night.
The Packers rolled their division rival, Chicago, last week and look to carry the momentum. For the Cowboys, they got an extra few days to prepare for Green Bay…and they needed it.
Dallas will head to Lambeau in hopes that their second game on NBC goes better than the first. But playing against the Packers has been brutal for the Cowboys.
1-9-1. In the past 15 years, Dallas has only beaten Green Bay once. That was in 2016, Dak’s rookie season. The only win for Prescott. Fittingly, that game was also Week 6, ten years ago.
The last time these two teams played, we saw a shootout. A 40-40 tie, also on SNF. I think this game will play very similarly; it’s going to be a high-scoring affair. If it’s not that kind of a game, then the Cowboys offense couldn’t get it going…or the Cowboys defense finally figured it out.
Click ⬇️ for my quick breakdown, or keep scrolling to read all three.
1. Beat The Blitz
Last week against Tampa Bay, Dak Prescott struggled when the Buccaneers brought extra pressure. Unfortunately, things might not get much easier against Green Bay. Packers defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, the former head coach of the Arizona Cardinals, has a history of giving Dallas problems.
In Cowboy fan world, we say we can’t beat Arizona…which the last four times that’s been true. In 2023 and 2025, Dallas lost against Gannon-led teams, scoring 16 & 17 points in those games.
Now Dallas will see Gannon in Green Bay.
According to Next Gen Stats, Green Bay has blitzed on 33.2% of opposing dropbacks, the highest rate of any Gannon-led defense. Prescott has also faced significantly more blitzes in Dallas’ three losses (36.9%) than in its two wins (26.7%).
The Packers have generated 14 pressures from defensive backs alone, the most in the NFL. So Dallas needs to anticipate pressure from everywhere, identify who’s coming, and get the football out quickly. If the Cowboys can’t make Green Bay pay for sending extra rushers, it could be another frustrating night for Prescott.
2. Win With Four
I know, I know… asking the Cowboys to generate pressure with just four rushers feels like asking for a miracle at this point. But we saw last week that the Green Bay passing offense took the air raid to the next level. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden lead the NFL as a receiving duo (just ahead of CD & Pickens), and if you’ve seen their deep routes, you know why.
To avoid turning the Dallas offense into Swiss cheese…or whatever they make up there in Green Bay. Dallas will need to get to Jordan Love, but they need the extra help deep, so its up to Ezeirauku, Gary, Williams, and Clark.
Here’s the problem: Dallas has generated pressure on just 24.6% of dropbacks when rushing four or fewer defenders, the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL. Even worse, the Cowboys have recorded a league-worst 1.6% sack rate in those situations.
However, there is an opportunity here. Green Bay left tackle Jordan Morgan has allowed 12 quick pressures this season, tied for the most among left tackles. That should create an interesting matchup with Donovan Ezeiruaku, who leads Dallas with 14 pressures.
Love gets the football out faster than anyone in the league, averaging just 2.51 seconds per throw. Dallas needs to win its individual matchups, finish sacks when opportunities arise and avoid giving Love all day to attack this secondary.
3. Control The Ground
When you think of playing at Lambeau Field, you probably picture freezing temperatures, snow, and miserable conditions. Fortunately for Dallas, this game is in October.
Sunday’s forecast is much more manageable, with temperatures around 50–55 degrees, clear skies and winds around 10 mph. Still, I’d like to see the Cowboys establish their running game rather than put everything on Dak Prescott’s shoulders.
Dallas hasn’t always gotten consistent blocking up front, particularly from its tight ends, but Javonte Williams has actually been pretty effective when given opportunities. According to Next Gen Stats, Williams leads the NFL with a 54.1% rushing success rate between the tackles.
Green Bay’s defense has been excellent on early downs, allowing just 4.3 yards per play on first and second down. That makes staying ahead of the chains even more important.
This game will be much more favorable for Dallas if they can keep control of the ground; chasing points is what gets this offense in trouble.
X-Factors of the Game
Game x-factors: not necessarily the best players, but guys who could have a big impact.
Dallas needs to overcome the boogeyman on Sunday night. In a season where fans are becoming uneasy, getting to 12 wins seems like a miracle. Dallas needs to get things back on track and well… let’s hope.
Leave a Reply