The Dallas Cowboys are running out of opportunities to turn their season around. After another embarrassing collapse against Arizona, Dallas sits at 3-5 with more questions than answers. And with the NFL trade deadline approaching, the Cowboys have to decide whether this roster is worth investing in or if it’s time to start looking toward the future.
Fortunately, Dallas gets another struggling opponent in the Indianapolis Colts, who enter Sunday at 2-6. But after watching the Cowboys blow a 14-point lead against Arizona, I’m not sure any opponent should be considered an easy win anymore.
The Colts have their own problems, but Jonathan Taylor remains a dangerous weapon, and Shane Steichen’s offense presents some interesting challenges for a Dallas defense that continues to struggle with consistency.
If the Cowboys want any chance of getting their season back on track, they need to start playing complete football games.
Click ⬇️ for my quick breakdown, or keep scrolling to read all three.
1. Stop the Run, Stop the Colts
If there was one thing we learned from last week’s loss to Arizona, it’s that the Cowboys still have a serious problem stopping the run. Tyler Allgeier rushed for 147 yards and a touchdown on just 11 carries, and now Dallas gets to face one of the NFL’s best running backs in Jonathan Taylor. Not exactly the matchup you want after that performance.
Taylor enters Sunday with 610 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. While he hasn’t recorded a 100-yard rushing game this season, he’s surpassed 90 yards five times. Meanwhile, Dallas is allowing a league-worst 152.8 rushing yards per game. That’s a pretty concerning combination.
According to Next Gen Stats, Indianapolis uses outside zone on 41.5% of its designed runs, the seventh-highest rate in football. Taylor has recorded 18 explosive runs this season, including 10 on outside-zone carries. Surprisingly, Dallas has defended outside zone relatively well, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry.
But those numbers won’t mean much if the Cowboys tackle the way they did against Arizona. Dallas needs to maintain its gaps, avoid overrunning plays and finish tackles before Taylor reaches the second level.
If the Cowboys can contain Taylor early, they’ll force Indianapolis to rely on Daniel Jones, who has thrown nine interceptions compared to five touchdowns. That’s exactly what Dallas should want.
2. Let Dak Be Dak
I’m still trying to figure out what happened to the Cowboys offense against Arizona. After watching Dak Prescott push the football downfield against Philadelphia, Dallas suddenly looked afraid to take chances again. The offensive line struggled, the running game couldn’t get going, and Brian Schottenheimer became increasingly conservative when the Cowboys had opportunities to put the game away.
Fortunately, Indianapolis presents an opportunity to change that approach.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Colts have generated a league-low 26.5% pressure rate this season, while their edge rushers have combined for just a 9.2% pressure rate, also the lowest in football. That should give Prescott opportunities to let routes develop and challenge the secondary.
Indianapolis has also allowed an NFL-high 23.8% explosive pass rate against man coverage. Meanwhile, Prescott has averaged just 5.0 yards per attempt against man, the fourth-lowest mark among quarterbacks.
That needs to change.
I’m not suggesting Dallas abandon the running game or throw deep on every possession. But when you have CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, there’s no reason your offense should be this predictable. The Cowboys need to create favorable matchups, use more motion and give Prescott opportunities to attack downfield.
At some point, Dallas needs to stop playing like it’s afraid to lose and start playing like it’s trying to win.
3. Don’t Get Fooled
One of the things that concerns me most about this matchup isn’t necessarily Indianapolis’ personnel. It’s how Shane Steichen can use his offensive scheme to create problems for an undisciplined defense.
The Colts use motion, misdirection and different formations to get defenders moving in the wrong direction. They’ll attack with outside-zone runs, screens and underneath routes. After watching Dallas struggle with its assignments and tackling against Arizona, I wouldn’t be surprised if Steichen tries exploiting those same weaknesses.
This is particularly important for the Cowboys’ linebackers and safeties. Josh Downs is dangerous working across the formation, Keenan Allen remains a reliable underneath target, and Tyler Warren can create mismatches from multiple alignments.
According to Next Gen Stats, Dallas has allowed 6.5 yards per play and a 49% offensive success rate when using nickel personnel, both among the worst marks in football. With Caleb Downs dealing with a concussion, communication becomes even more important.
The Cowboys cannot have linebackers chasing motion, defenders losing assignments or multiple players ending up in the same gap. That’s how a five-yard play becomes a 25-yard gain.
Dallas doesn’t need to reinvent its defense. It needs players to trust their assignments, communicate and make tackles. Because if the Cowboys keep getting fooled by the same concepts, opposing offenses are going to keep running them.
X-Factors of the Game
Game x-factors: not necessarily the best players, but guys who could have a big impact.
A fading season. The Cowboys just have to win this one. Get the job done.
Leave a Reply